Multicriteria and multiperiod programming for scenario analysis in Guadalquivir river irrigated farming

A multiperiod model based upon a multicriteria objective function has been developed for a representative area of the Guadalquivir Valley, dividing the irrigated area into homogeneous types of farming as identified by cluster analysis. The model was applied to different future scenarios with a time horizon of 10 years and several different farming environments. A set of eight sustainability indicators has been evaluated for the model. The results show that the evolution of crops over time is closely related to the political environment regarding the Common Agricultural Policy and the application of the Water Framework Directive. Methodological innovation has included the successful simultaneous introduction of MCDM and multiperiod programming techniques applied to agriculture and scenario development.